Blind Box

A blind box is a package that deliberately conceals what’s inside. For example, you buy a small collectible figure, but only after opening it do you see which of the twelve figures in a series you got. The price is the same for all variants, regardless of whether you get a common or a very rare figure. This very uncertainty is the product: you’re not just paying for the toy, but also for the moment of surprise. Such boxes are sold in dedicated stores, in vending machines, and online. The concept became well known especially through Chinese providers like Pop Mart, which generates billions in revenue worldwide with figure series such as Labubu.

Why plastic figures became a stock market topic

Blind boxes show up in business news because they represent an unusually profitable business model. The manufacturing cost of a small vinyl figure is in the low single digits, while the retail price is often between 15 and 30 euros. On top of that, buyers rarely stop at just one box. Anyone wanting to complete a series keeps buying until they get the missing figures.

The manufacturer Pop Mart is listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange and was, at times, worth more than long-established toy companies. Such valuations rely heavily on the assumption that the collecting trend will continue. That’s a risk: fads can fade quickly, and a single figure style often accounts for a large share of revenue. Analysts therefore closely monitor how many different series a provider has successfully brought to market.

A second reason for the attention is regulation. Consumer advocates see a closeness to gambling in blind boxes, since money is paid for a random outcome. In 2023, China issued rules restricting sales to children under eight and mandating minimum probabilities. Similar debates are underway in the EU.

The trick with the rare figure

Technically, a blind box is simple: the figures are packed in opaque bags before being placed into identical-looking boxes. What matters is the distribution behind it. A typical series consists of about twelve regular designs that appear roughly equally often. In addition, there’s a so-called secret figure, which often appears in only one out of 72 or one out of 144 boxes.

This rare figure is the real driver. It creates an incentive to keep buying, even though the chance is tiny. Psychologists call this principle variable reward: a reward that comes irregularly and unpredictably motivates more strongly than a guaranteed one. The same pattern lies behind slot machines and behind loot boxes in video games — that is, paid random packages containing digital items.

Anyone who believes that enough purchases will guarantee getting the rare figure is mistaken. Each box is generally independent of the previous ones. Retailers sometimes sell entire cartons with a guaranteed distribution, but for individual purchases: ten failed attempts don’t increase the odds on the eleventh try. Experienced collectors therefore try to weigh or feel the boxes — manufacturers counter this by using equally weighted packaging.

From gumball machines to the resale market

The basic principle is old. Collectible cards in football sticker packs, surprise eggs, and gumball machines have worked the same way for decades. What’s new is the professionalization: dedicated store chains, vending machines in shopping malls, artist collaborations, and tightly timed series launches. Brands outside the toy sector are also increasingly using blind box promotions, such as cosmetics or fashion providers.

A secondary market has emerged around these boxes. On platforms like eBay or Vinted, rare figures are traded for many times the retail price. On social media, unboxing videos — in which people open boxes on camera — are their own genre with millions of views. These videos act as free advertising and keep the cycle going.

In everyday life, a sober perspective is worthwhile. Anyone buying blind boxes should set a budget beforehand and understand that collectible value can fluctuate. Blind boxes should be distinguished from subscription boxes: there, the contents are also a surprise, but it’s not about the rarity and completeness of a series. And anyone encountering the term in financial news shouldn’t confuse it with the English “black box” — which refers to a system whose inner workings can’t be observed.