Intent Economy

When you’re out and about on the internet, you leave traces: pages visited, videos clicked, products bought. For years, the advertising industry has been building a profile of you from such traces and selling ad space based on it. The intent economy goes a step further. Here, the commodity is no longer what you have done, but what you’re planning to do: an upcoming move, a car purchase in the fall, a switch of your mobile phone plan. Such intentions are called “intent” in English, hence the name. They are considerably more valuable to companies than old behavior, because a purchasing decision can still be influenced before it is made.

Why intentions are more expensive than clicks

Classic online advertising guesses. It sees that someone is watching cooking videos and infers an interest in kitchen appliances from that. It’s often wrong. A stated intention, on the other hand, is unambiguous. Someone who writes “I need a new washing machine under 500 euros by May” reveals product, budget, and timing in a single sentence.

For companies, this is the single most valuable moment there is. Before the decision, the person is still open to influence; afterward, hardly at all. That’s why ads on search engines have long been more expensive than banner ads on news sites: a search query is already a small declaration of intent. If AI assistants collect these intentions more extensively and earlier, an even more coveted commodity emerges.

This shifts power. Whoever operates the assistant sits between you and every provider. It can decide which three hotels you get to see and which twenty you don’t. Researchers therefore warn that the intent economy is not just a new advertising market, but a market for the ability to influence decisions.

How a conversation becomes a tradable intention

The foundation is language models, i.e., programs that understand and generate human language. You talk to them differently than to a search engine. Instead of two keywords, you type whole sentences, explain background context, mention doubts and money worries. It is precisely this conversational tone that delivers information you would never have entered into a search field.

More can be read out of the conversation than just its content. Phrasing, tone, and hesitation hint at personality and determination. A system can use this to estimate how easily someone can be swayed. This assessment is part of the product that can be sold or auctioned off.

The final step is brokering. An assistant that already carries out bookings can suggest offers in a particular order. Paid placement barely stands out here, because only a single suggestion appears rather than a list. This is precisely the difference from the attention economy: there, providers compete for your time; here, they compete for an intention you have already formed.

How to spot the intent economy today

It becomes visible everywhere assistants are meant to take over tasks. Travel portals, online shops, and banks are building in chat windows that ask about your plans. Major providers are announcing assistants that independently reserve tables or buy tickets. Anyone offering such services for free has to make money some other way.

The term comes up in business news whenever the future of advertising is discussed. Search engine advertising is a multi-billion-dollar business, and assistants could redistribute it. Researchers at the University of Cambridge sparked a wide-ranging debate with a 2024 study and helped popularize the term.

A common misconception is that it’s only about advertising. It’s also about bargaining positions. If a system knows that you urgently need an apartment, that information is valuable to landlords and insurers. In practical terms, this means: check whether an assistant stores conversations, and treat very personal plans there with the same caution as a public notice board.