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Granite 4.2

IBM · v4.2 · seit 25. August 2026 · 2× · zuletzt 30. Aug. 2026

Momentum

Granite 4.2 ist eine von IBM entwickelte Familie dichter, Decoder-only Reasoning-Sprachmodelle in den Größen 3B, 8B und 30B Parametern, die native Chain-of-Thought-Reasoning-Fähigkeiten sowie einen umschaltbaren "Thinking"-Modus bieten. Die Modelle wurden von Grund auf auf rund 15 Billionen Tokens vortrainiert und anschließend durch ein mehrstufiges Reinforcement-Learning-Verfahren (inklusive agentischem RL für die 8B- und 30B-Varianten) für Tool-Calling, Coding und agentische Workflows optimiert. Die Gewichte stehen unter Apache-2.0-Lizenz offen auf Hugging Face, GitHub und Ollama zur Verfügung und sind zusätzlich über IBM watsonx.ai sowie API-Anbieter nutzbar; das Modell ist rein textbasiert (keine Multimodalität).

Momentum-Verlauf

15.07.13.10.

Features

Key-Benchmark (%)	30B-Modell: 57,00 % auf SWE-bench Verified (IBM-eigene Tests)
Kontextfenster (Token)	131.072 Token im Standard-Deployment, IBM gibt eine Long-Context-Erweiterung auf bis zu 512.000 Token an
Lizenz	Apache 2.0 (offene Gewichte, uneingeschränkte kommerzielle Nutzung)
Multimodalität	Nein, rein textbasiert (Text-Input/Output, keine Bildverarbeitung)
Plattform	Verfügbar über Hugging Face, GitHub, Ollama sowie IBM watsonx.ai; Unterstützung für vLLM und SGLang
Preis pro 1M Token	30B: $0,16 Input / $0,65 Output; 8B: $0,06 Input / $0,25 Output (IBM-API)
Release-Datum	25. August 2026

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Belege (2)

Unternehmens-Analyse: IBM

Stand 11.10.2026

HOLDSynthszr Vote

HOLD best fits the current data: IBM has demonstrable Software growth (2Q 2026 Software +5%, Red Hat +11%, Data +19%) and meaningful cash generation (2Q FCF $2.54B; reiterated FY2026 plan for ~+$1B YoY FCF growth), but it also reduced FY2026 constant-currency revenue growth guidance to 4%–5% and faces material Infrastructure volatility (IBM Z -42% YoY in 2Q). With valuation cited around ~18x forward earnings by market-data providers and visible estimate pressure into the next earnings catalyst (Oct 21, 2026), the risk/reward is more balanced than asymmetric at this point. (sec.gov)

Zusammenfassung

International Business Machines (IBM) is a global enterprise technology provider with a hybrid-cloud and AI-centric portfolio spanning (1) Software (Red Hat, automation, data & AI, transaction processing), (2) Consulting (technology and business transformation services), and (3) Infrastructure (IBM Z mainframes plus distributed infrastructure), supported by a long-standing enterprise client base and a large partner ecosystem. IBM’s core competencies are mission-critical systems, hybrid-cloud orchestration (notably via Red Hat), and enterprise-grade governance/security for regulated workloads—areas where switching costs and compliance requirements can sustain recurring revenue and pricing discipline. In the most recently reported quarter (2Q 2026, released July 22, 2026), IBM reported revenue of $17.2B (+1% YoY). Segment performance was mixed: Software grew +5% with Hybrid Cloud (Red Hat) +11% and Data +19%, while Transaction Processing declined; Consulting was flat; Infrastructure declined (-7%) with IBM Z down sharply (-42%) but Distributed Infrastructure up strongly (+37%). IBM reported operating (non-GAAP) pre-tax margin of 19.2% (up ~30 bps YoY) and GAAP gross margin of 57.7%. Free cash flow (FCF) in 2Q was $2.54B; first-half 2026 FCF was $4.76B (flat YoY), while operating cash flow improved materially in 1H 2026. IBM also returned $1.6B to shareholders via dividends in 2Q. (sec.gov) A key recent development is guidance: IBM reset full-year 2026 constant-currency revenue growth expectations to 4%–5% (from prior “5%+”) while reiterating its expectation that full-year FCF will increase by about $1B year-over-year. Management also highlighted actions to adjust go-to-market coverage and productivity initiatives, alongside continued investment in AI/hybrid-cloud offerings. (sec.gov) On valuation, recent third-party market data indicates IBM traded around $227 (Oct 9, 2026) with a forward P/E cited near ~18x (methodology varies by provider). This places IBM in a “quality/defensive tech” valuation band rather than high-growth software multiples, consistent with its blended profile (recurring software + services + cyclical infrastructure). (investing.com) Short- to medium-term outlook is primarily driven by (a) sustaining Software growth (Red Hat + data/AI), (b) stabilizing Consulting growth and margins, and (c) navigating Infrastructure cyclicality (notably IBM Z cycle timing). The most data-supported near-term watch items are execution versus the reduced 2026 growth range, FCF conversion, and whether Software strength can offset Infrastructure volatility. (sec.gov)

Key Takeaways

2Q 2026 showed a mixed growth profile: Software +5% (Red Hat +11%, Data +19%) offset by Infrastructure -7% and Consulting flat. (sec.gov)
IBM reduced FY2026 constant-currency revenue growth guidance to 4%–5% while reiterating ~+$1B YoY FCF growth expectation—guidance change is a central recent signal. (sec.gov)
Cash generation remains a key support: 2Q 2026 FCF was $2.54B and IBM maintained a large dividend payout ($1.6B in 2Q). (sec.gov)
Infrastructure volatility is material: IBM Z revenue was down 42% YoY in 2Q 2026, creating headline risk even when distributed infrastructure is strong. (sec.gov)
Recent market commentary highlights estimate pressure into the next earnings catalyst (Oct 21, 2026), with valuation around ~18x forward earnings per some providers—suggesting limited margin for execution misses. (investing.com)

Action-Ideen

HOLD

Base-case positioning for investors who want large-cap enterprise tech exposure with dividend support, but who require clearer evidence that the revised FY2026 growth range (4%–5% constant currency) is achievable without further resets. Data points supporting a HOLD: (1) Software growth remains positive and relatively resilient (Red Hat +11%, Data +19% in 2Q 2026), (2) operating (non-GAAP) pre-tax margin improved to 19.2% in 2Q 2026, and (3) IBM continues to generate substantial FCF and return capital via dividends. Counterweight: Infrastructure cyclicality (IBM Z -42% in 2Q 2026) and the fact that management already reduced the growth outlook, increasing sensitivity to upcoming execution and guidance updates.

Horizont: 6 Mon.

BUY

Accumulation case for investors with a medium-term horizon who prioritize cash flow durability and believe Software momentum can continue to outgrow the rest of the portfolio. The data-driven support is that Software grew +5% in 2Q 2026 with strong sub-segment growth (Hybrid Cloud/Red Hat +11%, Data +19%), while IBM reiterated its expectation for ~+$1B YoY FCF growth for FY2026 despite lowering the revenue growth range. If IBM delivers on FCF and maintains margin discipline, the stock’s forward P/E cited around ~18x by market-data providers can be consistent with a steady-return profile rather than a high-growth profile.

Horizont: 12 Mon.

SELL

Risk-reduction case for investors who require consistent top-line acceleration and lower segment volatility. The most recent quarter included a guidance reset (to 4%–5% constant-currency revenue growth) and pronounced Infrastructure weakness (IBM Z -42% YoY). If an investor’s mandate is growth consistency, the combination of (a) reduced growth expectations, (b) estimate pressure cited by market commentary, and (c) a forward multiple near ~18x can be viewed as insufficient compensation for execution risk into the next earnings event.

Horizont: 3 Mon.

Contrarian Insights

• The market often frames IBM as a low-growth services incumbent, but the 2Q 2026 segment data show Software (especially Red Hat and Data) is the primary growth engine; consolidated growth can look muted largely due to Infrastructure cycle timing (e.g., IBM Z -42% YoY) rather than broad-based weakness. (sec.gov)
• Despite a revenue-growth guidance reset, IBM reiterated its FY2026 plan for ~+$1B YoY free cash flow growth; if delivered, the equity story may be more cash-flow-and-margin driven than revenue-growth driven, which can be underappreciated when headlines focus on top-line misses. (sec.gov)