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GPT-4.1

OpenAI · v4.1 · siet 2025-04-14 · 39× · tolest 08. Aug. 2026

Momentum

GPT-4.1 is a proprietary large language model by OpenAI released exclusively via API on April 14, 2025. It is optimized for instruction following, tool calling, and coding, and features a 1 million token context window. The model is multimodal (text + image/video) and achieves 54.6% on SWE-bench Verified, while being approximately 26% cheaper than GPT-4o at improved performance.

Momentum-Verloop

25.05.23.08.

Features

Key Benchmark (%)	SWE-bench Verified: 54.6% (vs. 33.2% GPT-4o); MultiChallenge (Instruction Following): 38.3%; IFEval: 87.4%; Video-MME (long, no subtitles): 72.0%
Context Window (Tokens)	1,000,000 tokens (input); max. 32,768 tokens output
License	Proprietary / closed-source – commercial API access under OpenAI usage policies
Multimodality	Text + image (input); supports image understanding (MMMU, MathVista, ChartQA), video comprehension (Video-MME), OCR, and visual reasoning; output: text
Platform	OpenAI API (REST); also available in ChatGPT Plus/Pro from May 2025; also accessible via Azure OpenAI Service and OpenAI Developer Playground
Price	Pay-per-use API; no flat-rate subscription for API usage; price: $2.00/1M input tokens, $8.00/1M output tokens
Price per 1M Tokens	Input: $2.00 / Output: $8.00 (standard); cached input: $0.50 (75% discount); batch API: $1.00 input / $4.00 output
Release Date	April 14, 2025

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Belege (39)

Company Analysis: OpenAI

As of 22/08/2026

SELLSynthszr Vote

On a data‑driven basis, the balance of evidence points to a SELL stance for new or marginal capital. OpenAI’s latest ~$852B valuation implies an extremely demanding revenue and margin trajectory, with even optimistic 2025 revenue scenarios yielding 40–80x sales multiples. At the same time, competitive intensity has increased sharply, with Anthropic now valued higher and reportedly ahead on revenue run‑rate, and xAI and others scaling rapidly. Independent analyses and government reports suggest that some of the most bullish revenue projections may be overstated, introducing guidance and execution risk. Google Trends data indicate that the period of explosive incremental brand interest peaked in 2022–23 and has since normalized, meaning future growth must come from deeper enterprise monetization rather than viral consumer adoption. Taken together—stretched valuation, rising competition, potential over‑optimism in revenue expectations, and plateauing public mindshare—the risk profile outweighs the upside at current private‑market marks, warranting a SELL recommendation for incremental investment, while existing early investors may reasonably HOLD given substantial embedded gains and long‑term optionality.

Key Takeaways

OpenAI remains one of the most valuable private AI companies globally, with a post‑money valuation of about $852B after a $122B funding round announced in April 2026, following earlier rounds that valued the company at $300B in April 2025 and ~$730B in early 2026. This implies a massive step‑up in private-market expectations within ~12–18 months. (openai.com)
Revenue growth has been extremely rapid but is now coming under question versus peers: management and multiple reports point to revenue roughly tripling year‑over‑year from ~$2B in 2023 to ~$6B in 2024 and >$20B projected for 2025, but newer third‑party and government analyses suggest 2025 revenue may end up materially lower (<$12B), implying either guidance risk or very aggressive projections embedded in the latest valuation. (theinformation.com)
On any reasonable 2025 revenue base, OpenAI trades at an extremely rich implied revenue multiple versus even high‑growth software/infra peers: using a wide range of $10–20B for 2025 revenue and an ~$850B valuation implies ~40–80x 2025E sales, at a time when closest peers Anthropic and xAI are catching up in both model quality and commercial traction and Anthropic has recently surpassed OpenAI in private valuation (~$900–965B). (openai.com)
Competitive dynamics have turned sharply more challenging in 2026: Anthropic is now at or above OpenAI in both valuation and reported revenue run‑rate, with some industry analyses suggesting Anthropic has pulled ahead on enterprise revenue and token usage, while xAI is rapidly scaling compute and positioning as a lower‑cost alternative. This erodes OpenAI’s earlier perception as the clear economic winner of the foundation‑model race. (axios.com)
Search interest in “OpenAI” surged from late 2022 through mid‑2023, peaked around the initial ChatGPT hype, and has since normalized: Google Trends and Statista data show that global search interest remained elevated through 2024 but has been gradually declining/flattening over the last ~18–24 months, with the highest interest period around November 2022–May 2023. This suggests the brand remains strong but incremental mindshare gains are harder to achieve, and newer launches (e.g., GPT‑5.x) have not recreated the original spike. (statista.com)

Action Ideas

SELL

For investors with indirect exposure to OpenAI via late‑stage private vehicles or structured products, the risk/reward now skews negative. The April 2026 round at ~$852B bakes in extremely optimistic assumptions on sustained 200%+ revenue CAGR, durable pricing power, and limited competitive erosion, while recent data points show Anthropic overtaking OpenAI in valuation and reportedly in revenue run‑rate, and xAI scaling aggressively. Even if OpenAI reaches $20B+ revenue by 2025–26, the implied 40–80x sales multiple is difficult to justify versus any historical software or infra comp set, especially as AI infra capex and regulatory scrutiny rise. Any disappointment on revenue, margin, or safety/regulatory events could trigger a sharp down‑round or secondary repricing.

Horizon: 24 mo.

HOLD

For investors with earlier‑stage exposure at substantially lower entry valuations (e.g., pre‑2024 rounds), the best course may be to hold. The company still sits at the center of the AI ecosystem with a powerful brand, deep technical talent, and strong distribution via Microsoft and other hyperscalers. Even if the current ~$850B mark proves unsustainable, long‑term optionality around AGI‑scale models, enterprise AI platforms, and potential IPO liquidity remains significant. However, adding incremental capital at or near current marks offers limited margin of safety given competitive and regulatory overhangs.

Horizon: 36 mo.

SELL

For prospective new investors considering secondary purchases near the latest round valuation, the setup is unattractive. The market is now assigning similar or higher valuations to Anthropic, which some analyses suggest is already ahead on revenue and enterprise traction, while OpenAI’s own revenue disclosures and third‑party estimates are inconsistent and potentially optimistic. With Google Trends data showing that brand‑level interest has plateaued since the 2023 peak, incremental growth must come from deeper enterprise penetration and higher ARPU rather than pure user growth, which is harder and more capital‑intensive. Paying late‑stage venture prices for what increasingly looks like a competitive, capital‑heavy infrastructure and application stack leaves little room for error.

Horizon: 18 mo.

Google Trends · ↘ declining

Global Google Trends data and Statista’s weekly search‑interest series for “OpenAI” show a dramatic spike starting in November 2022 with the launch of ChatGPT, followed by sustained high interest through mid‑2023. From late 2023 through mid‑2024, search interest remains elevated but begins to trend sideways to slightly down, and over the last ~18–24 months the pattern is one of gradual normalization rather than renewed breakout spikes, even around major product launches. Relative to the 2022–23 peak, current interest levels are lower, indicating that while OpenAI remains a highly searched brand, incremental global curiosity is fading as AI becomes mainstream and competitors capture more of the conversation.

Contrarian Insights

• Despite the narrative that OpenAI is the inevitable long‑term winner in foundation models, recent funding and revenue data suggest that the economic leadership position is already contested or even slipping: Anthropic’s latest round values it higher than OpenAI and some industry analyses now show Anthropic ahead on revenue run‑rate and enterprise traction. A contrarian view is that OpenAI could end up more like an early pioneer that gets out‑scaled or out‑monetized by later entrants with tighter enterprise focus and more disciplined capital allocation.
• While consensus often assumes that OpenAI’s brand and early‑mover advantage guarantee durable consumer and developer dominance, Google Trends and search‑interest data indicate that the peak of public mindshare was in 2022–23 and that interest has since normalized. A contrarian take is that the marginal value of the OpenAI brand is declining as AI becomes ubiquitous and as enterprises prioritize reliability, integration, and total cost of ownership over brand, which could compress OpenAI’s pricing power faster than the market expects.